Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Tentative Derby EL 2.0 Contenders, plus Reasoning

Ted Craven · 05-05-2011, 07:51 PM

I corrected a few things and re-ran the KY Derby for EL 2.0 purposes. Here's what I got:

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Based on the TrackMaster numbers shown - and the (default) rules we have to work with, does anyone think the 2 Early and 2 Late selections are incorrect? If not, I'll post this publicly. At this point, just trying to get the software to perform consistently!

Reasoning:

In this race, the POR is the 106 of Uncle Mo, which is NOT 12 SR points higher than the next highest Low (95 of Comma to the Top). But using 106 as POR results in NO other horses Hi SR qualifying. So we take the next highest Hi SR of Mucho Macho Man (MMM) (102) and this gives us 2 Early contenders.

OR - we could say that Uncle Mo's 11 SR point superiority over next best Low SR - Comma to the Top (95) is close enough to 12 points, and then use the Hi SR of the #1 ranked E% horse (Comma to The Top's 100) and thus make the POR 100. This qualifies a bunch more Early horses, but the same 2 Earlies are still the top 2 ranked Hi: Uncle Mo and MMM. Am I right?

I appreciate that other handicapping may come up with other contenders. Just haven't got that far yet!

Thanks,

Ted

05-05-2011, 07:51 PM	#1
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,251	I corrected a few things and re-ran the KY Derby for EL 2.0 purposes. Here's what I got: Based on the TrackMaster numbers shown - and the (default) rules we have to work with, does anyone think the 2 Early and 2 Late selections are incorrect? If not, I'll post this publicly. At this point, just trying to get the software to perform consistently! Reasoning: In this race, the POR is the 106 of Uncle Mo, which is NOT 12 SR points higher than the next highest Low (95 of Comma to the Top). But using 106 as POR results in NO other horses Hi SR qualifying. So we take the next highest Hi SR of Mucho Macho Man (MMM) (102) and this gives us 2 Early contenders. OR - we could say that Uncle Mo's 11 SR point superiority over next best Low SR - Comma to the Top (95) is close enough to 12 points, and then use the Hi SR of the #1 ranked E% horse (Comma to The Top's 100) and thus make the POR 100. This qualifies a bunch more Early horses, but the same 2 Earlies are still the top 2 ranked Hi: Uncle Mo and MMM. Am I right? I appreciate that other handicapping may come up with other contenders. Just haven't got that far yet! Thanks, Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 05-05-2011 at 11:09 PM.