Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Items on BL BL screen and Pace Balance speed

Bill Lyster · 03-27-2011, 06:42 PM

[QUOTE=BJennet;70157]Hi Ted,

Thanks for this detailed summary. Just wanted to add a couple of comments for newer clients based on my own research on TE. From a sample of nearly 1200 races the most useful finding for me (although maybe it shouldn't have been), was that TE rank is a significant predictor of win probability - each horse wins at a rate almost exactly 60% less than that of the TE rank above them. Interestingly Dave Schwartz came up with a nearly identical win rate for his prime factor, so possibly these ratios reflect something innate about the nature of how horses run."

Sorry it took me so long to read this, but I am having trouble with picturing the math you are referring to in the bolded section above. If you get a chance would you show an example of what you are saying. IS it, for example, that if the #1 TE wins at 60% that the #2 wins at 36% and the #3 TE wins at 21.6%?

thanks,

Bill

03-27-2011, 06:42 PM	#18
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,498	[QUOTE=BJennet;70157]Hi Ted, Thanks for this detailed summary. Just wanted to add a couple of comments for newer clients based on my own research on TE. From a sample of nearly 1200 races the most useful finding for me (although maybe it shouldn't have been), was that TE rank is a significant predictor of win probability - each horse wins at a rate almost exactly 60% less than that of the TE rank above them. Interestingly Dave Schwartz came up with a nearly identical win rate for his prime factor, so possibly these ratios reflect something innate about the nature of how horses run." Sorry it took me so long to read this, but I am having trouble with picturing the math you are referring to in the bolded section above. If you get a chance would you show an example of what you are saying. IS it, for example, that if the #1 TE wins at 60% that the #2 wins at 36% and the #3 TE wins at 21.6%? thanks, Bill