Quote:
Originally Posted by BJennet
Hi FTL,
Historically, horses have won at close to their odds. You may have been misreading your charts, but there was no time when horses at odds > 6-1 ever won at a rate even approaching 20%.
Take a look at Dave's 2010 8-horse field chart, which is about average size and roughly representative. Horses at all odds > 6-1, won approximately 4.3% of their races. Even starters at exactly 6-1, which historically have won about 14% of their races, in 2010 won 11.9%. It just confirms what Dave was saying more informally on the phone - there are dramatically fewer winners at high odds compared with the past, not just the odds range below 4-1.
Cheers,
B Jennet
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Ok, let's make Dave's numbers the focus of attention. Here's a link to his web site and episode #1.
http://thehorsehandicappingauthority...ing-episode-1/
When he puts up the slide that shows final odds for 2010, pause his presentation so you can examine that slide.
First let's look at the column header "pays". Actually, that can be replaced by "wins" since that it what it represents.
You'll notice that at the bottom of that column is the total, 38,166. That represents the total winners for the year.
Now if you add up the number of wins starting with odds of 6/1, the total of that group comes to 11,138. Dividing the total for that group of 6/1 or greater wins by the total number of wins, we get 29%.
You'll notice that in the left hand column Dave goes from 9/2 to 6/1, jumping over 5/1, so I don't know what number of wins there are in his database for horses going off at 5/1. I'm sure if we could add those in it would raise the percentage we already established of 29%, thereby resulting in an even higher percentage.
Further, if we add up the winners for the group starting at 9/1, we get total wins of 7,367. Dividing that total by the total amount of winners for the year (38166) we get 19% and we can't even be sure where he included the wins for odds of 7/1 or 8/1 so perhaps 19% is on the low side.
So as you can see, Dave's numbers confirm my numbers.