Quote:
Originally Posted by BJennet
FTL,
As to your basic point, that it's still possible to win and find value, I agree. However, Dave's charts indicate why it's become more difficult in recent years. More winners are now concentrated at lower odds everywhere.
The 'average' figures you cite don't reveal this shift in the way that a median, or better, a scatter-graph of winners would. Even though the average price of all winners may be constant, the median has shifted downward. Unlike in the recent past, when horses won at about their odds, as Dave's charts indicate, as the odds go up past 5/2, they're winning at one or two ticks lower then their odds would previously have indicated. And, as you say, 30% of horses win at odds of 5-1 or greater, but if you check Dave's chart, you'll see that of winners going off at 9/2 or greater (roughly the range you're talking about), 75% are going off at between 9/2 and 6-1. All winners above 6-1 would include only about 7.5% of all winners.
Many professional players, including Dave and Jeff P., have discussed this phenomenon on PA, and I don't think there's much question of it's reality.
As you say, the cause may ultimately be irrelevant, and it's still possible to make money, but it's become necessary to look much longer and harder than ever, in the past.
Cheers,
B Jennet
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I have to disagree with you on one point.
In 2001 the percentage of winners at odds greater than 6/1 was 20%.
In 2010 the percentage of winners at odds greater than 6/1 was still 20%.
I don't dispute Dave's findings. I have the same findings. When you accumulate the kind of volume that both Dave and I have, conclusions will match. My point is that this downward trend exist in odds less that 4/1. This doesn't disturb me at all since I'm not involved with these horses anyway.