Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
FTL....would you add "Track" selection to your list also?
cause if you play a track , like Penn , then that "value" part might be long a waiting 
mike |
No, I wouldn’t add “track selection” based on the percentage of winning favorites. Short term results are meaningless. In the long run things will work out to the more “expected” number, as they should.
I suspect you mentioned Penn National since the winning favorite percentage posted for that track was 50%. (lol) I don’t expect that number to hold up over time, do you?
Also, Penn National happens to be one of the tracks I play on a regular basis and I am I’m not having any problems there. Of course, I only play horses at 4/1 or better and I’m not in every race, only the races were I have better than expected chance of winning based on my own information and handicapping.
The other thing readers may want to pay attention to in Dave’s video that was posted, is something I have written about several times on this site. The top two choices win 6 out of 10 races. This leaves the bettor with just 4 out of 10 races in which to pick a winner that wil return a decent price to them. And the bettor still has to pick the right horse in those 4 races, which they will not.
As you can see, it is imperative that the bettor know which races they have the best chance to beat the top 2 choices and which races they don’t have the best chance of beating the top 2 choices, in which case they can pass those races in favor of the races where they stand the best chance of cashing a ticket, otherwise, the bettor will incur severe financial difficulty.
Handicapping horse races for profit is not “a game”. It is a job, a business and as any successful busines owner will tell you, it takes a lot of hard work to achieve that goal.