Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

chris · 02-19-2011, 08:14 PM

And now a straight forward approach.

COMPLETED: 08577514857992 FG #6 Place 5
COMPLETED: 72268171218599 FG #6 Win 2,5

Race #6 was a prelimary allowance on the turf. What I didn't mention in my earlier post is that I let the race and more importantly, my experience, inform how I'll handicapp the race. This one looked straight forward to me. Best of the last three races, same surface and distance if possible. Again RDSS in VAL4, and horses 5 and 2 came out well; 1st and 3rd respectively. The 2 was 7 years old and a little long in the tooth to be contesting a preliminary allowance contest but blinkers were added last race and he did improve.

So I believed, and bet those two horses to win. Though I did go back and place bet the 5 when I peaked at the odds board and saw 22-1.

Guess who won?

His running line of 25.2/5, 51.2/5, 117.1/5 & 140.3/5 with a DRF variant of 20 for a mile race put off most handicappers, however incremental velocity and deceleration had him on top. I point to turf races because the odds don't deviate much from the morning line, and I can make bets in advance and get on with my life.

Regards,
Chris

02-19-2011, 08:14 PM	#2
chris Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Richfield, MN Posts: 182	Farigrounds turf race (continuted) And now a straight forward approach. COMPLETED: 08577514857992 FG #6 Place 5 COMPLETED: 72268171218599 FG #6 Win 2,5 Race #6 was a prelimary allowance on the turf. What I didn't mention in my earlier post is that I let the race and more importantly, my experience, inform how I'll handicapp the race. This one looked straight forward to me. Best of the last three races, same surface and distance if possible. Again RDSS in VAL4, and horses 5 and 2 came out well; 1st and 3rd respectively. The 2 was 7 years old and a little long in the tooth to be contesting a preliminary allowance contest but blinkers were added last race and he did improve. So I believed, and bet those two horses to win. Though I did go back and place bet the 5 when I peaked at the odds board and saw 22-1. Guess who won? His running line of 25.2/5, 51.2/5, 117.1/5 & 140.3/5 with a DRF variant of 20 for a mile race put off most handicappers, however incremental velocity and deceleration had him on top. I point to turf races because the odds don't deviate much from the morning line, and I can make bets in advance and get on with my life. Regards, Chris