Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

tom · 11-13-2010, 11:12 AM

This is a use of the old DRF variant that is not talked about a lot. Back when that was all there was, I used to keep track of that. Horses at FL early in the season, with variants higher, say 24, 28, 30 would not perform as well during the summer with variants of 12,14, 16, even though their adjusted speed ratings and pace ratings made them contenders. The reason, I thought, was that some cheap horses have sore feet and can run in deep tracks but not on harder ones. That the track was the same one was a key factor. There were horses who always ran well early and late in the years and those who ran well it the summer months. It made sense to me that horse shipping from California
(hard dirt back then) to deeper East coast tracks did not run as well as expected.

You can only adjust pace lines, not the horses.

11-13-2010, 11:12 AM	#4
tom Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 644	This is a use of the old DRF variant that is not talked about a lot. Back when that was all there was, I used to keep track of that. Horses at FL early in the season, with variants higher, say 24, 28, 30 would not perform as well during the summer with variants of 12,14, 16, even though their adjusted speed ratings and pace ratings made them contenders. The reason, I thought, was that some cheap horses have sore feet and can run in deep tracks but not on harder ones. That the track was the same one was a key factor. There were horses who always ran well early and late in the years and those who ran well it the summer months. It made sense to me that horse shipping from California (hard dirt back then) to deeper East coast tracks did not run as well as expected. You can only adjust pace lines, not the horses.