Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Repden94 · 11-12-2010, 07:50 PM

Thanks to those who answered. I needed to do a better job of being specific in my question. The answers I received helped me understand what I need to convey..

My question is on the DRF track variant. I understand the "higher the variant", the slower the track ran that day and vice versa with a lower variant. I understand the concept of two horses running the same fractions, and one horse running these fractions on a course with a higher variant, possibly being the better of the two.

My question??

If I am handicapping Churchill and lets say, I start to notice that a majority of the sprint winners on the day of the races come from past performances indicating they ran on fast tracks (ie variant 0-10) with fast fractions, whether it was Belmont or Gulfstream or Calder or wherever.

So, if I find two horses that ran the same fractions, one ran it on a Variant 25 track and the other ran on a variant 07 track in their last pp line, is there ever a time that a "winners profile" might dictate picking the faster variant horse over the other. Can a horse who runs fast fractions on "slow" track be biased to a slow track and not be as fast on a fast track?

Thanks for the discussion. I am trying to figure it out. I have read Brohammers book...

Am I splitting hairs?

Thanks,,,,
....

11-12-2010, 07:50 PM	#3
Repden94 AlwNW1X Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Lafayette, CO Posts: 15	Thanks to those who answered. I needed to do a better job of being specific in my question. The answers I received helped me understand what I need to convey.. My question is on the DRF track variant. I understand the "higher the variant", the slower the track ran that day and vice versa with a lower variant. I understand the concept of two horses running the same fractions, and one horse running these fractions on a course with a higher variant, possibly being the better of the two. My question?? If I am handicapping Churchill and lets say, I start to notice that a majority of the sprint winners on the day of the races come from past performances indicating they ran on fast tracks (ie variant 0-10) with fast fractions, whether it was Belmont or Gulfstream or Calder or wherever. So, if I find two horses that ran the same fractions, one ran it on a Variant 25 track and the other ran on a variant 07 track in their last pp line, is there ever a time that a "winners profile" might dictate picking the faster variant horse over the other. Can a horse who runs fast fractions on "slow" track be biased to a slow track and not be as fast on a fast track? Thanks for the discussion. I am trying to figure it out. I have read Brohammers book... Am I splitting hairs? Thanks,,,, ....