Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V.
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Bill,
Thank you for posting each horse in this race along with your line selection and reasoning for same. It is a PERFECT example of what is wrong with the concept of "BLINDLY" employing best of last three comparable. Specifically I want to review the #8 horse.
Here is a horse with just 3 races. In those 3 races it has demonstrated that it has a front running style. So you went back to its first lifetime race 158 days ago (more than 5 months ago) for a line because that line has the highest speed rating. Do you think it is objective to use this horses first start ever rather than its last race? Did you feel there was no room for this horse to improve as it showed it did in its last race by running its best early fractions?
You also noted that you were concerned that as a result of choosing the 3rd line back that the horse ran against a slow pace. THEN YOU SHOULD HAVE USED THE LAST LINE! It is the most current piece of information for this horse, NOT the oldest, AND it comes from the same track the horse will be competing on TODAY!! It shows that it can compete with fast early fractions.
Speed ratings are based on the best time in the past 3 years at a given track for a given distance. There IS NOT one standard time from which all horses at every track in the country is measured. Every track, every distance and every surface is calculated on its own. It is quite possible that the #8 horses last race speed rating of 78 could actually result in a faster time than the 81 speed rating from HAW.
Consider this example. The 3 year best time at 6f at track A is 108, while the 3 year best time at 6f at track B is 109.
Keep in mind that at each track the 3 year best time represents 100.
Keep in mind that for each one fifth of a second a horse runs slower than the 3 year best time, one point will be deducted from the base 100.
A horse that runs a 6f race at track B in 1:12.4 will get a speed rating of 81, because that time is 19 fifths (one fifth = 1 length) slower than the 3 year best time.
A horse that runs a 6f race at track A in 1:12.2 will get a speed rating of 78, because that time is 22 fifths (one fifth = 1 length) slower than the 3 year best time.
Which horse ran the faster time?