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Yes the horse has been off 60 days but he may have had some solid 5F workouts.
Using Bills model the unadjusted times for the Ist and 2nd calls fall into the ranges below for 6F.
Ist call : 21.1 - 22.4 , 2nd call: 44.1 - 45.3
This would eliminate line 1 which is too slow 22.9 - 46.3 (out of range).
So if you use line1 the horse cannot run to the projected times.
But if the horse had those 5F works then I would use line 2 because:
Line 2: 22.3 - 45.3 Is within the winners range for 6f and has a better SR than line3.
Line 2 is also a tick faster to the Ist call than line 3 (22.3 - 22.4)
However line 3 is faster to the 2nd call then line 2 (45.1 - 45.3)
But overall I would give line 2 the edge: faster to the first call and a higher SR.
Ernie
Last edited by SilentRun; 09-23-2010 at 12:19 PM.
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