Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffH
I also bet several tracks per day (5 or 6) when I bet (once or twice a week). I am betting all races that meet my odds requirements; and I can rate all horses. I am doing this on paper right now. I am working on paclines, eliminating to 5 contenders, using the BL/BL to determine the tiers. Now I'm breaking my bets into 20 race cycles. As I said, most of my questions will answer themselves when I get 10 cycles completed (200 races). If what I'm doing is profitable, I will continue. If not, I will look at my weaknesses and adjust my betting.
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Hi Jeff,
I think your plan of only betting on paper until you're making a profit is great. This was the path suggested by handicapping authority Dick Mitchell, whose 'Commonsense Betting' is a very good book on the subject, if you can find it. It was Mitchell's influence which finally persuaded Doc Sartin to construct the BL/Bl, and get involved with wagercapping, after mutuel prices on pace-advantage horses began deterioriating, as an increasing number of players became aware of the power of Sartin's work.
As others have said here, don't worry about win % (or 'hit rate' as some call it) - ROI is the thing to watch. I think it was possible to have a two-horse 70% win rate at Santa Anita this year and still lose money. Finding overlays is what the game is about. And re the issue of two-horse betting - this originated in Doc Sartin's desire to instill confidence in his clients by giving them a higher hit rate than they would have with one, but it has no mathematical grounding. If you're already confident in your ability, and don't mind hitting fewer winners, but making more money, you're better off with just betting overlays, as Dick Mitchell advised and successfully practiced.
Re betting the #3 and #4 ranked horses, nothing wrong with this, but it's worth noting that Doc Sartin formulated this strategy before Ted's recent improvement of the top two TE horses. In the 90s and earlier, the top four ranked horses won at a roughly even 20% rate - you can check through some Follow-Ups from that period to confirm. Since the BL/BL is virtually identical to both TE and Perceptor rankings, it's worth remembering that #1 TE now wins at roughly a 40% rate, #2, at 25%, #3 at 15%, and #4, at 9%. Of course, there is, at times, justification for betting the lower-ranked animals - something we discussed recently here - but, as Doc Sartin said, in one of the later Follow Ups, you really need a strong reason to do so - either odds or e/l.
Cheers,
B Jennet