Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffH
I have read the followups, the paceline manual, and a bunch of threads regarding paceline selection. The paceline manual says to always use last race unless there's a valid reason not to (wrong surface, distance, class, etc.). Then in a followup, it says to use the best of last 3 at a comparable distance and surface. Bill V, in a thread of his, says he uses best adjusted speed rating in last 3 where finished within 7.5 lengths of winner. I know the methodology has no rules; but in order to get consistent results, consistent paceline selection is mandatory. Consistent paceline selection requires consistent procedures "rules". If anybody would like to comment on their paceline selection procedure and success, I would like to hear it. I have been using the demo software; and have downloaded several cards; but to this point, I am not picking the correct paclines as often as I should be.
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A VERY GOOD post.
I will assume that you are new to the methodology and trying your best to get a handle on the best procedure for line selection, right from the horses (Doc) mouth.
I got started with the Sartin Methodology about 25 years ago when the ONLY "guideline" for picking pace lines was "THE LAST LINE IS THE LINE UNLESS FOR SOME GOOD REASON YOU HAVE TO GO BACK". Now, the next thing was, how far do you go back? The answer was, to the VERY NEXT LINE. If for some GOOD reason THAT LINE was not usable, then you go BACK ONE LINE.
There was never anything that told you to start right off by picking pace line #10!
There was never anything that told you to bypass a good line in favor of a better line down the list.
The reason the last line is the line, is because it is the most recent piece of information on the horses current form.
Having said that, does that mean you take the last line if the horse ran dead last around the track, even if the race was at the same distance surface? NO!
Let's say a horse wins a race 2 back, then jumps up in class and runs a very dull race. Today the horse comes back down to the level were it won 2 back. Is the line two back acceptable? YES!
I have found that the original "guidelines" have served me well right from the beginning.
Have I ever tinkered with line selection? Well, I'm human, so the answer is "yes". Have I every found anything to be better than the original "guideline"? NO.
I agree with you. The WORST thing about the methodology, as well as the single thing most embraced by a large number of methodologists, is the idea that there are no rules.
Personally, my line selection is automated. In automating my line selections, the LAST LINE IS THE LINE, UNLESS THERE IS A REASON TO GO BACK ONE LINE.
This is coupled with the "RULE" that I will not use any horse that hasn't run in the last 90 days. WHY? Because 95% of all winners have run a race in the last 90 days. I will not use any pace line that is more than 90 days old. For a horse in training, they will generally run 3 to 5 races during that period of time. If you can't get a line for a horse during that time period over that number of races, perhaps it is time to THROW THAT HORSE OUT!
The largest percentage of winners can be gotten right off their last line where the last line is applicable.
The next largest percentage of winners come from use of the second line back. The further back you have to go for a line, the lower the win percentage.
I would suggest going back and re-reading that which you already read. Not many people have a problem picking a paceline where the horse ran 1st, 2nd or 3rd. Doc stated that a horse that shows early speed and backs up is telling you that is is coming into form. USE THAT LINE.
The best lines to use are those that represent how the horse runs.
For the best results from the software you use, you want to have a mixture of early types, presser types and sustained types.
For the best results in keeping models, results from races with a good mixture of the above types will provide you with meaningful models. Models that will show which of these types are performing best at your track at various distances and surfaces.
I don't know why you feel you are not picking correct pacelines, but picking the "correct" paceline does NOT necessarily mean the "correct" horse (the winner) will be at the top!
Picking a line for an early speed type that backed up will in all likelihood put the horse below the top couple of spots on your bl/bl, but that doesn't mean the horse won't win or that the paceline you used was not correct.
Good Luck!