Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Ted Craven · 08-04-2010, 12:47 PM

Thanks Jim, Dick and William,

I believe I have enough references to study Quirin pace figures (and I actually have all the books referenced!)

Dick, TrackMaster supplies for sprints a 2f (where applicable), 4f and final pace/speed figure for the race leader/winner, and the same ratings for each horse. For routes, the 4f, 6f and final pace/speed figs are supplied.

If we accept that each vendor's ratings are coherent within themselves while being numerically dissimilar to each other to an extent, and each is founded on the principle of a statistically meaningful standard or 'par' for a distance and surface (and the deviation of each horse from that par) - then I contend that the pace/speed figs available from TrackMaster are as good as any - and better: I can use them, because I'm not (in the foreseeable future) going to use any other ones or compute hand fabricated or commercially plug-in-able sets of pars.

Maybe I'm wrong by millimeters - but a par is a par is a par - AND getting exact figures is a fantasy anyway, AND is perhaps less than 50% (maybe way less) of the effort to making profit by betting on horses (the majority effort being wager selection/construction, record keeping and personal psychology). So maybe I can use TrackMaster's existing figs and display (analogous to the graphic in your post #9 above) the 2nd call POR fig and POH fig, plus the Final POR fig and POH fig. Maybe the numbers will be different, but the relationships should be similar.

I still fail to understand why this would be an advantage over displaying the 2nd call POR Velocity vs POH velocity and then the Final POR velocity (aka True Speed/TS) and POH velocity - better yet, graph them, both of which I plan to do. Is it the 2 digit pace/speed ratings compared to the decimal 3 digit velocity #s. Why add MORE numbers (except as a migration path to those familiar with a style of rating from other software, e.g. MPH, which was the point of this thread). We need LESS numbers (or numbers judiciously applied) and more pictures (graphs). More numbers often equals more confusion.

If enough people said they'd subscribe to RDSS if the exact MPH numbers appeared, well then...

Dick: when I get a functional MPH-style screen working, with the above existing TrackMaster supplied pars, I'll show it to you and perhaps you can suggest useful ways to improve it.

cheers,

Ted

08-04-2010, 12:47 PM	#18
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,251	Thanks Jim, Dick and William, I believe I have enough references to study Quirin pace figures (and I actually have all the books referenced!) Dick, TrackMaster supplies for sprints a 2f (where applicable), 4f and final pace/speed figure for the race leader/winner, and the same ratings for each horse. For routes, the 4f, 6f and final pace/speed figs are supplied. If we accept that each vendor's ratings are coherent within themselves while being numerically dissimilar to each other to an extent, and each is founded on the principle of a statistically meaningful standard or 'par' for a distance and surface (and the deviation of each horse from that par) - then I contend that the pace/speed figs available from TrackMaster are as good as any - and better: I can use them, because I'm not (in the foreseeable future) going to use any other ones or compute hand fabricated or commercially plug-in-able sets of pars. Maybe I'm wrong by millimeters - but a par is a par is a par - AND getting exact figures is a fantasy anyway, AND is perhaps less than 50% (maybe way less) of the effort to making profit by betting on horses (the majority effort being wager selection/construction, record keeping and personal psychology). So maybe I can use TrackMaster's existing figs and display (analogous to the graphic in your post #9 above) the 2nd call POR fig and POH fig, plus the Final POR fig and POH fig. Maybe the numbers will be different, but the relationships should be similar. I still fail to understand why this would be an advantage over displaying the 2nd call POR Velocity vs POH velocity and then the Final POR velocity (aka True Speed/TS) and POH velocity - better yet, graph them, both of which I plan to do. Is it the 2 digit pace/speed ratings compared to the decimal 3 digit velocity #s. Why add MORE numbers (except as a migration path to those familiar with a style of rating from other software, e.g. MPH, which was the point of this thread). We need LESS numbers (or numbers judiciously applied) and more pictures (graphs). More numbers often equals more confusion. If enough people said they'd subscribe to RDSS if the exact MPH numbers appeared, well then... Dick: when I get a functional MPH-style screen working, with the above existing TrackMaster supplied pars, I'll show it to you and perhaps you can suggest useful ways to improve it. cheers, Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™