Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Bill Lyster · 08-03-2010, 02:56 PM

Okay, this is somewhat old school-developed data. I used 1 second = 5 lengths and computed E/L's for dirt and turf sprints using 3rd fraction par times (par = 85 pts) as follows:

5f 12.2 seconds
5.5f 18.6 seconds
6f 25.0 seconds
6.5f 31.6 seconds
7f 38.0 seconds

Database did not have info to compute route E/L but you can tell they are pretty negative. I think so far maybe one Wire to Wire job has happened at 8 furlongs or more. Almost all wins come from more than a couple off the pace. Very sustained I believe.

Min./Max. 90% Range Median
5.0 Turf -5/+21 0/+16 +9.0

5.5 Poly -13/+20 -6/+10 +1.0

6.0 Poly -19/+24 -10/+13 (67% are over 0) +1.5

6.5 Poly -19/+18 -13/+9 -1.0

7.0 Poly -17/+13 -13/+12 -3.0

Used as a guide, can help eliminate potential contenders from either end of the spectrum and might help point out place and show only types.

08-03-2010, 02:56 PM	#9
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,498	Sprint E/L info from track download data Okay, this is somewhat old school-developed data. I used 1 second = 5 lengths and computed E/L's for dirt and turf sprints using 3rd fraction par times (par = 85 pts) as follows: 5f 12.2 seconds 5.5f 18.6 seconds 6f 25.0 seconds 6.5f 31.6 seconds 7f 38.0 seconds Database did not have info to compute route E/L but you can tell they are pretty negative. I think so far maybe one Wire to Wire job has happened at 8 furlongs or more. Almost all wins come from more than a couple off the pace. Very sustained I believe. Min./Max. 90% Range Median 5.0 Turf -5/+21 0/+16 +9.0 5.5 Poly -13/+20 -6/+10 +1.0 6.0 Poly -19/+24 -10/+13 (67% are over 0) +1.5 6.5 Poly -19/+18 -13/+9 -1.0 7.0 Poly -17/+13 -13/+12 -3.0 Used as a guide, can help eliminate potential contenders from either end of the spectrum and might help point out place and show only types.