Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V.
Race 1 from Belmont
I can brag cause I bet the 4 and 5
Why did they make this horse the 6/5 fav
Thank you horse 6 for setting a fast pace
is it possible that a 0/30 trainer and a 0/32 jockey
got burned by going to fast early because they were suppose to win ?
the 4 wins at 5/1  |
Let’s start with the conditions of the race.
NW1Y or non winners of a race in the last year. Claiming price $10,000.
The #7 horse just ran 2nd against “OPEN” $10,000 claimers. In other words that field could have had 10 horses in it all with 20 wins in the last year. (not likely, but possible, and is shown as the type of horses it may have been running against in OPEN races) rather than a field like this where you have a bunch of horses that, between them, haven't been able to win a single race in the last year!
Now in case you say “but that was at 1 mile”, then look at the second race back which is at today’s distance and again versus “OPEN” $10,000 claimers and the horse had the lead at the second call (top of the stretch) In fact, the ONLY TIME this horse hasn’t raced against OPEN claimers was 9 races back. Compared to the rest of the field, that pretty much sums up the reasons for this horse being made the favorite.
I assume the reference to jockey and trainer are in reference to the #7 horse.
With regard to the #6 horse, did it occur to you that this is a horse with physical problems? Until it got claimed “470 DAYS AGO” this horse appears to have been doing just fine. Then in the race after the first claim, all of a sudden the horse can’t get past the second call and it has remained that way regardless of claiming price, regardless of condition, regardless of distance. It is no surprise whatsoever that this horse set a fast early pace and faded. That has been the horses “MO” over its’ last 7 races. Going back 351 days for a line in order to get a better speed rating and better total energy isn’t going to help this horse.