Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster
Take this with a grain of salt, because I already shot my wad and missed on the first two.
The FPLR of this race is the #2, IMO, Spangled Star, and he ran and closed, however slightly against a one turn mile pace of 23.4-45.6-109.3, running 5-5-4 and 5.5-4.6-4.0 lengths back. Even if you adjust for one turn by adding a second to the 6f time to get 1:10.3 this horse should be in contention with the expected slower pace of this race.
One thing odd strikes me about this race is that most of the favorites won their route races with positive E/L's, which seems counterintuitive for a race of this length. Even Ice Box ran positive E/L's until his late run from Mars in the Derby.
Almost all of the PPs from Gulfstream routes had winning horses with positive E/L's and not many of them have run against what could be 111+ and 136+ interior fractions. That being said the best mile times come from the #11 on or near lead at 136.4 and the #1, running from 4th in 136.2 (4th by 4 in 135.4). To me there does not appear to be must early competition.
Good luck to all tomorrow. I will watch only.
Bill
|
Does all this mean that FIRST DUDE wins in wire to wire fashion?
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
|