Quote:
Originally Posted by tizlinda
I also believe in work. I am not trying to shortcut anything, but am trying to figure out what you guys do. There is always, however, a point of diminishing returns. Has anyone found that to be true when creating track models? How many races do you need in your model to feel comfortable using it? Do you really find a big difference between 10k claimers going 5.5F vs 6F or 6.5 F? Is it really possible to get enough races even in a long meet to fill so many different models?
I am interested in which tracks have the longest meets, can you let me know what your favorites are?
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I'll answer your last question first. YES!
Now, how many races do you need in a model to feel comfortable?
Let's look at this way. If we just start with one and ask ourselves, is that enough(?), we can begin to answer the question ourselves.
How about "two"? Well, suppose there is an early and a late? I guess two isn't enough.
How about "three"? Well, maybe now you have two lates and an early. Is that conclusive enough yet? Not hardly.
At this point wouldn't you have to look at at least one more? Suppose one more adds another "late" to the model. At this point you have one early and three lates. All of a sudden we are seeing a possible trend. Are you comfortable with just those four races in your model?
You see, all of a sudden it becomes and individual question.
What YOU are comfortable with, someone else may not be comfortable with.
A point worthy of note is this. Not every model will produce something that you can point to and say,"wow, look at this. All I have to do in this model is bet ...." whatever it is the model shows.
Some models are all over the place. So what do you do with those models? Keep adding to them. Perhaps something will show itself that you can take advantage of later.
There will be other models that start out good and stay that way.
I have posted this before. I once had a model at a particular track, distance, sex, surface, class and condition, that showed the #1 or #2 first fraction horse won more than 30 consecutive races.
Had I NOT keep models in this way, those races would have been mixed in with other races and I would have never seen this trend.
If I have not answered you question well enough for you, post any remaining questions and I'll try my best to answer them.