good post charlie...
but there's one important thing that should be considered..
"know thy track"
at some tracks that "weak" early horse might just have enough to hold on..
I'm sure other can confirm this that AQU is not a speed favoring track...
the other day , i had a horse that i capped to go to the front and with no pressure should wire em....well he got a 2 lt lead and I saw fractions of 23.4 47.0 and said "nice home free"...he came in third..
mike