[tompkins]

two words: SAMPLE ERROR.

Imagine that I am scouting a basketball player, and only watch ONE game where, unbeknownst to me, he suffers an ankle sprain the day before. I get a skewed undertstanding of the PLAYER based upon a single PERFORMANCE.

Now if I watched that same player over 3 to 4 contests, sample error would have worked it's way out of the evaluation and I would be seeing the PPERFORMER not the PERFORMANCE.

To understand a horse's abilities today, you should evalute it based upon MULTIPLE examples or, like the basketball player, you are prone to sample error. Also the FORM CYCLE wil tell you which way, if it any, this particular horse is going.

Unless the animal sets every fraction, you need to know how it handled pace pressure. Look at MOST EVERY horse: their style, e/l ranking, total energy wax and wane. To establish a wagering decision on a single line is not logical.