Quote:
Originally Posted by BJennet
Hi Charles,
BTW, if you're going to be tracking TE, I would be very interested in knowing what kind of results you get. My own experience confirms what Doc Sartin pointed out many times for those trying to do this - all of these readouts, TE, BL/BL, PLS, and TPP have very highly correlated results, to the point of near redundancy. But while this is generally true, I found TE to have slighly higher ROI for reasons I couldn't determine. If you get to 200 races or so, I would be grateful if you could let us know whether the hit rates are in the ballpark of those I posted, or whether they need to be revised. The bigger the database we get on this, the more accurate we'll be.
Thanks for posting.
Cheers,
B Jennet
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I'll be glad to.
I do my tracking manually, and it's broken out into distances. When we hit the next two-day "dark" period, I'll go back and add the TE rankings for previously handicapped races.
Why by hand when I can export data from RDSS? Simple, the very process of inputting is more than one of just transposing figures from A to B, I'm making mental notations while doing so.
One good thing about the Inner Dirt track is that there are limitations on the number of distances. It's mostly 6F, 1M, 1M-70 and 1 1/16M. Since there's no turf racing, one gets to acquire data quicker. Races at 1 mile are relatively new, they must have gone 20 years before ever scheduling one at that distance. I had the first ever winner on the IDT, a legendary claimer named Rare Joel.
But I confine my tracking to the types of races that I play. I don't use lightly raced horses or cheap claimers. I also don't "retrofit" - sometimes in whittling a field down to five contenders from ten or more, one is bound to toss out a winner.
It would be easy to go back and toss one out to fit the winner into the mix of five (and I always reduce down to five), but I don't second guess myself. Sometimes one is just plain wrong or anyone of a thousand variables could have changed the outcome. I may make an observation that will pay off in the future, but my whole approach is to try to eliminate "guess work."
That's why I don't hide favorites - if they figure too strongly, I just pass the race, that's all. If I see a 6/5 shot with a 25% edge on BL over the next horse, I don't try to beat it. Experience has shown me that such an edge in that ranking is too much of an advantage.