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Old 01-11-2010, 06:09 PM   #8
BJennet
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 311
Filtering outliers

Quote:
Originally Posted by clore1030 View Post
I'll check that out. I may have some questions later, thanks.

This post defines how I arrive at a pace line:
http://www.paceandcap.com/forums/sho...2412#post62412

I was quite pleased when Rich responded that it was quite similar to his own auto-selection process.

I'm not crazy about lightly raced horses either. Too much of a possibility of rapid improvement. The odds have to be favorable and if I'm having a good day, I might make an action bet, but otherwise I play with caution. I may dope out the races every day, but I don't wager every day. It tends to average one spot per day.

I was tempted to go with the 3 in the first at AQU today, he has the figs and the ability to run well fresh. Plus the odds are nice.

However the inner voice says to hold back and I trust my instincts.
Charles,

Agree with what you say here, and the paceline selection your link outlines sounds somewhat similar to what I described. Using a speed number as you do sounds like a very good way to filter high-TE outliers - I try to do the same kind of thing more informally, but I will keep it in mind.

Cheers,

B Jennet
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