Quote:
Originally Posted by BJennet
Hi Charlie,
If you scroll down, you find the TE results I originally put up in Richie's autopaceline thread.
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...?t=6240&page=4
You can see that 3yos are among the groups I've filtered out, since I don't play them, finding them to be more erratic performers than I'd like, but that doesn't mean that TE won't win - I just can't confirm the hit rate.
Paceline selection is simply done by looking at the #1 'Energy' screen and, for each horse, taking the line with the best TE among 'last three comparable'. Obvious outliers should be eliminated and, of course, experienced handicappers should use their discretion, but I no longer use 'no wins showing' as a filter, since it was cutting out some good prices.
Also, re hiding, since I mentioned 3-1 as my lower betting limit, there usually is no need. The reason I mention this to newer players is that it will give them a higher hit rate than the other ranks, and hopefully build confidence.
#1 TE did especially well at AQU yesterday, taking not only R.1 but also R.6 @12-1, and R.7 @4-1.
As far as today's race goes, the 5 would fit the bill, but given a group of very lightly-raced horses with wide class differences, I would exercise caution. As Guy Wadsworth pointed out, the software works best using horses that are showing at least 10 races.
If you have any more questions, just post.
Best of luck.
Cheers,
B Jennet |
I'll check that out. I may have some questions later, thanks.
This post defines how I arrive at a pace line:
http://www.paceandcap.com/forums/sho...2412#post62412
I was quite pleased when Rich responded that it was quite similar to his own auto-selection process.
I'm not crazy about lightly raced horses either. Too much of a possibility of rapid improvement. The odds have to be favorable and if I'm having a good day, I might make an action bet, but otherwise I play with caution. I may dope out the races every day, but I don't wager every day. It tends to average one spot per day.
I was tempted to go with the 3 in the first at AQU today, he has the figs and the ability to run well fresh. Plus the odds are nice.
However the inner voice says to hold back and I trust my instincts.