Quote:
Originally Posted by clore1030
If only that will work in the 8th at AQU today. I've got a 15/1 shot there (the 5 horse) that also comes up second in BL, but first in EPR and FW - both of which have been producing the most winners at the distance.
If one looks at the horse's record, one sees the horse was shopping around the East coast and had to be dropped into a MC 7.5 at Finger Lakes to finally win. Then he stepped up to a NW2 there and won. Using that line (albeit a sloppy track) gives the horse some good figs against what is a likely prohibitive favorite.
I'd be interested though in how you arrive at those percentages. Specifically if you use other criteria to trim down a field in the first place, or do you knock them out starting with the lowest TE score?
Also, is this after hiding favorites?
I always trim a field down to five contenders. I never hide favorites. If a fave does appear to dominate, I just pass the race.
Presently I have 42% of 6F Inner Dirt winners coming from EPR and 50% of them from FW.
Dislaimer - only races for winners and only 20K claimers and up make my day. My own experience shows me that the biggest aberrations come from cheap claiming horses and I'm looking to have the percentages in my favor.
PS - I only bring up the eighth race as there are just six entrants to start with. I wait for scratches to trim a field before I do, until then I evaluate every entrant.
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Hi Charlie,
If you scroll down, you find the TE results I originally put up in Richie's autopaceline thread.
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...?t=6240&page=4
You can see that 3yos are among the groups I've filtered out, since I don't play them, finding them to be more erratic performers than I'd like, but that doesn't mean that TE won't win - I just can't confirm the hit rate.
Paceline selection is simply done by looking at the #1 'Energy' screen and, for each horse, taking the line with the best TE among 'last three comparable'. Obvious outliers should be eliminated and, of course, experienced handicappers should use their discretion, but I no longer use 'no wins showing' as a filter, since it was cutting out some good prices.
Also, re hiding, since I mentioned 3-1 as my lower betting limit, there usually is no need. The reason I mention this to newer players is that it will give them a higher hit rate than the other ranks, and hopefully build confidence.
#1 TE did especially well at AQU yesterday, taking not only R.1 but also R.6 @12-1, and R.7 @4-1.
As far as today's race goes, the 5 would fit the bill, but given a group of very lightly-raced horses with wide class differences, I would exercise caution. As Guy Wadsworth pointed out, the software works best using horses that are showing at least 10 races.
If you have any more questions, just post.
Best of luck.
Cheers,
B Jennet