[clore1030]

If only that will work in the 8th at AQU today. I've got a 15/1 shot there (the 5 horse) that also comes up second in BL, but first in EPR and FW - both of which have been producing the most winners at the distance.

If one looks at the horse's record, one sees the horse was shopping around the East coast and had to be dropped into a MC 7.5 at Finger Lakes to finally win. Then he stepped up to a NW2 there and won. Using that line (albeit a sloppy track) gives the horse some good figs against what is a likely prohibitive favorite.

I'd be interested though in how you arrive at those percentages. Specifically if you use other criteria to trim down a field in the first place, or do you knock them out starting with the lowest TE score?

Also, is this after hiding favorites?

I always trim a field down to five contenders. I never hide favorites. If a fave does appear to dominate, I just pass the race.

Presently I have 42% of 6F Inner Dirt winners coming from EPR and 50% of them from FW.

Dislaimer - only races for winners and only 20K claimers and up make my day. My own experience shows me that the biggest aberrations come from cheap claiming horses and I'm looking to have the percentages in my favor.

PS - I only bring up the eighth race as there are just six entrants to start with. I wait for scratches to trim a field before I do, until then I evaluate every entrant.