Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Gulfstream Friday 1/8 2nd race 5.5 furlongs

Bill Lyster · 01-07-2010, 10:54 PM

Big fields today and still more cheap speed

5 out of the 13 need open leads to win; and probable pace is 22.2-46.8 with at least three of the 5 dedicated earlies pushing that pace and collapsing. So this eliminates 2-3-5-6-10. The 1, 7 11-12-13 are slow, leaving me with the 4, 8 and 9.

The 4 has two good lines running two L off faster paces at the slightly faster Hawthorne. The 8 presses but cant keep up with 4, so OUT. The 9 is the top class horse, has run against fastest pace 22 and 44.3 at MED but has not shown a propensity to pass horses, but this pace and the backup nature of the early types might help him here.

The 4 presses and has the best closing kick, always good at 5.5 furlongs. so 4 on top and box the 4 and 9. The ML on these two is 5/1 and 4/1, respectively.

Good luck tomorrow,

01-07-2010, 10:54 PM	#1
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,498	Gulfstream Friday 1/8 2nd race 5.5 furlongs Big fields today and still more cheap speed 5 out of the 13 need open leads to win; and probable pace is 22.2-46.8 with at least three of the 5 dedicated earlies pushing that pace and collapsing. So this eliminates 2-3-5-6-10. The 1, 7 11-12-13 are slow, leaving me with the 4, 8 and 9. The 4 has two good lines running two L off faster paces at the slightly faster Hawthorne. The 8 presses but cant keep up with 4, so OUT. The 9 is the top class horse, has run against fastest pace 22 and 44.3 at MED but has not shown a propensity to pass horses, but this pace and the backup nature of the early types might help him here. The 4 presses and has the best closing kick, always good at 5.5 furlongs. so 4 on top and box the 4 and 9. The ML on these two is 5/1 and 4/1, respectively. Good luck tomorrow,