Since live racing was canceled at Aqueduct today
, I have plenty of time to try this Gulfstream race.
Here are the running styles of the horses:
E – 1, 2, 6, 9
EP – 2, 8
P – 3, 4, 7
SP – 4, 5
I have #2 as both an E and EP, and #4 as both P and SP.
For the projected pace, I chose #2’s most recent line. My projected pace is:
22.1 45 1:11
I threw out 4, 5, 7 and 9 as competitors because they were too slow or for other reasons. Well, I actually didn’t throw them out. That implies that there wasn’t much thought in the process. Rather, after careful consideration, I decided that these four horses were very unlikely to win.
Comparing horses line by line:
1 vs 2 – Ugh! Those track-to-track comparisons I hate so much! Fortunately, both horses raced at Philadelphia Park, and it looks like #2 is better early. So I throw out #1, but with misgivings.
2 vs 6 – The #6 returns to the track after 10 months. His running lines for 2008 would make him a competitor, but he ran poorly in his last 4 races. Has he been helped by the layoff? If his races right before the layoff were good ones, I would consider him without hesitation. But since he was running poorly, I doubt he will recapture his form. #6 is out.
2 vs 8 – The #8 can handle any pace the #2 has run, and finishes faster. Plus, #8 has run at better tracks, presumably against better competition, and still finished well. I prefer #8.
8 vs 3 – I can’t choose between them. They perform equally well against a similar pace.
If the odds are good, I’ll bet both.
Good Luck,
Marc