Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster
Thanks Justin:
With my overall record being considered a pace expert seems a long ways off. I am striving to get my selections more centered and consistent, so all help is appreciated. My questions are coming from my interpretation of what I understood from Jim's writings, so the more you post the quicker it will sink in. Keep it coming as you have the ability to post.
In talking with one other member of this forum some time back he advocated (paraphrasing here) using the best of any races run in the last 30 days and using the last line when there was only one race in the past 30 days, but not if that one line represented the horse's worst past performance. Other than that little bit of latitude his method of line selection is much like yours.
Continued success,
Bill L
|
Bill,
I will post when I can. There wasn't much going on today race wise, so only actually bet like 3 races, during my breaks at work. Here is a race that ran today. I will post a race in the morning for tomorrow also.
12/21
Calder
Race 2
1- No races at todays distance in last 4. Will use best beyer.
2- The line is 3 back, at todays distance.
3- No races at todays distance in last 4, will use best beyer.
4- No races at todays distance in last 4, will use best beyer.
5- Last out was at todays distance.
6- The line is 2 back, at todays distance.
7- No races at todays distance in last 4, will use best beyer.
1---47.01----106.73---Even, but this race is at 5.5 Furlongs.
2---46.80----113.45---Lost 10
3---46.25----113.79---Lost 3, Set the Pace
4---47.79----112.49---Lost 3
5---46.93----114.43---Gained 1
6---46.73----113.19---Even, Set the Pace
7---46.99----114.09---Gained 4, Press The Pace
Eliminations will be 3 due to the loss of lengths at the 3rd slowest pace. Next elimination is the 5, who gained only 1 length against the slowest pace. Next elimination will be the 2, who lost 10 lengths against a mediocre pace.
Leaves top 4 of 1-4-6-7.
Many would ask why keep the 1. Well the average seconds for 1 furlong is around 6 to 6.5 seconds. That would make the 6 Furlong time on the 1 of around 112.73 or so.
With the remaining horses left, I would say to kick out the 4. The 1st 4 furlongs was the slowest in the field, and horse lost 3 lengths. Is actually the only Top 4 horse to lose lengths.
Top 3 would be 1-6-7.
The 1 is a horse that NEEDS the lead. May not get the lead the horse needs to win, but will be up front early. The 6 needs an even bigger lead to hang on. Last out can be excused due to the turf, but will def be near the lead early. The 7 is a Press/Stalker. The horse has a kick late. With all the early speed in here, this one could be the one to catch.
SELECTION 7 With 1-6
The race finished 6-7-1.