Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster
Justin:
I forgot these last questions in my first question post awhile back.
First question has to do with the use of lines from recent maiden win horses. The Hat did not appear to want to use maiden lines.
I understand the need to use the maiden win line when its from last out. And I know we basically learn how the horse wins (E, P, S type) from that race. But in reviewing lines after maiden wins for "Oh so long" (back off Mike) few really advance off those lines, most regress.
So the situation is, with respect to your earlier guidelines, what line do you use when the best of last four (and the other guidlines) puts you on the maiden win?
Part Two: The maiden won and then improved (by any standard) but the improvement race is not at today's distance. Use the improved line or not? Why or why not? I know it sounds like common sense, but I want to hear it from the actual user instead of doing my own variation.
Much thanks you have crystallized the process for me greatly by your posts on this subject,
Bill
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Bill,
I have been working on this approach for sometime, and just recently found a passage-way that works MUCH of the time. I will continue to refine the line choice, to try to better the model. At the present time, its very simple. I choose the most recent race at todays distance as the line, as long as it was in the last 4 races. If the horse hasn't raced at todays distance, I use the line in which the horse posted the top beyer.
I am kind of confused why Jim didnt like to use Maiden win lines. He said he NEVER looks at class, so it shouldn't be an issue what class the horse posted the race at. I mean its obvious claimers will probably run faster fractions that Maidens, so based on the 1st off Maiden win, the horse will probably be eliminated anyways.
I will continue to post the full approach, so some can study it a bit more. I do not use E/S/P until down to final 2 or 3, in which I will see whether the race will be run Early or OTE, and then make the selection. The method has posted a FLAT BET win profit betting TOP CHOICE only to win EVERYDAY for the past 2 1/2 weeks. Just imagine what a little refining can do. Thats kind of WHY I decided to show my cards. It seems you all here are experts on pace handicapping, so I'd figure you all could help refine the method some.
Thanks for your interest Bill!
Justin