Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Ted Craven · 12-07-2009, 03:56 PM

Hi PandaMan, welcome to the neighbourhood during your study of potential software tools. All 3 of your candidate tools have demonstrable long-term profitable possibilities. It may boil down to the combination of price, your personal learning style (and ability to suspend your previous race analysis skillset in order to grasp the 'culture' of each tool you evaluate without mish-mashing and diluting the professed effectiveness of each) - and the time required to, if not get up to speed and persistently profitable in 6 weeks, at least make a determination of the potential within say another subsequent 3 - 6 months. Also like the old saw 'how long does it take to get from Chicago to New York?' - it depends on your velocity, and what your vehicle is.

Some metrics you should try to answer for yourself, or take into consideration:

1. Can you download and watch all the RDSS tutorial videos: say 5 - 7 hours. Can you begin reading (or read as required a dozen issues of the Sartin Methodology Follow Up journal as relates to paceline selection guidelines, factor interpretation and betting strategies? Do you feel comfortable asking for help, using a (free) screenshot tool to illustrate your progress to elicit advice? Share your progress selecting contenders and wager decisions in public? Defer making actual wagers in favour of paper bets made in real time (largely in the straight WPS pools at first)? If you answer Yes to most of these, or at least - answer 'could be' - then that might be helpful (more velocity on your journey).

2. Though RDSS is the current version of a Methodology with a quarter century history, it is not as mature software as either HTR or HSH - nor is it quite 'finished', from the point of view of where I (as author) want it to be as a base platform for the next number of years. (That 'finished' state, or next more mature stage, should arrive within 2 or 3 more months). As discussed in another thread, another recent evaluator found that RDSS currently lacked automated paceline selection tools, integrated model keeping, among other (in his opinion) missing tools - thus more manual effort is currently required than he was expecting. Plus there are a few irritating memory constraint issues, but nothing that cannot easily be worked around. You need to currently use a screen capture tool to make printouts. This does not bother many people - but some people it does.

3. The Sartin Methodology professes that the horse runs the race, and thus trainer and jockey stats and breeding play a very minor (if any) role. Trainer intent is always important, but often redundant to the picture painted by the figures of the horse itself. We don't merely seek the top rated horse - the 2nd or 3rd ranked horse is often 'good enough' and offered at longer odds to prevail when the favourite loses its normal 33% share of races. 2 horse betting is another prime tenet, though not etched in stone. Short-term, recent factor models are better than long-term, volume collections (i.e. for spot-plays that might for example hit 10 times in each 100 events).

If there are any other caveats anyone else wants to add about learning curve or idiosyncracies (or stellar points!) - please state them without reserve from your own experience. I'd rather someone get the conservative point of view than merely the hype or party-line. The next 6 weeks do include the Holiday season, when some folks may be less available to help than otherwise, but we don't always get to choose our opportunities!

PandaMan, ask away - anything at all. You can try the 1 week of race cards in the Demo Database without charge, but I suspect you will want to at least follow along with discussion of current races, so as to ask advice, challenge, make decisions with the toteboard in real-time (i.e. record wager decisions against RDSS' live tote odds at 2 or 1 mintues to post, not off the final Result Chart odds). $30/month for 20 cards or $2.00 per card is the ante for current races. The software is free to evaluate for your 6 weeks. Full Getting Started blurb is here: http://www.sartinmethodology.com/how_to_obtain_rdss

best regards,

Ted

12-07-2009, 03:56 PM	#4
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,251	Hi PandaMan, welcome to the neighbourhood during your study of potential software tools. All 3 of your candidate tools have demonstrable long-term profitable possibilities. It may boil down to the combination of price, your personal learning style (and ability to suspend your previous race analysis skillset in order to grasp the 'culture' of each tool you evaluate without mish-mashing and diluting the professed effectiveness of each) - and the time required to, if not get up to speed and persistently profitable in 6 weeks, at least make a determination of the potential within say another subsequent 3 - 6 months. Also like the old saw 'how long does it take to get from Chicago to New York?' - it depends on your velocity, and what your vehicle is. Some metrics you should try to answer for yourself, or take into consideration: 1. Can you download and watch all the RDSS tutorial videos: say 5 - 7 hours. Can you begin reading (or read as required a dozen issues of the Sartin Methodology Follow Up journal as relates to paceline selection guidelines, factor interpretation and betting strategies? Do you feel comfortable asking for help, using a (free) screenshot tool to illustrate your progress to elicit advice? Share your progress selecting contenders and wager decisions in public? Defer making actual wagers in favour of paper bets made in real time (largely in the straight WPS pools at first)? If you answer Yes to most of these, or at least - answer 'could be' - then that might be helpful (more velocity on your journey). 2. Though RDSS is the current version of a Methodology with a quarter century history, it is not as mature software as either HTR or HSH - nor is it quite 'finished', from the point of view of where I (as author) want it to be as a base platform for the next number of years. (That 'finished' state, or next more mature stage, should arrive within 2 or 3 more months). As discussed in another thread, another recent evaluator found that RDSS currently lacked automated paceline selection tools, integrated model keeping, among other (in his opinion) missing tools - thus more manual effort is currently required than he was expecting. Plus there are a few irritating memory constraint issues, but nothing that cannot easily be worked around. You need to currently use a screen capture tool to make printouts. This does not bother many people - but some people it does. 3. The Sartin Methodology professes that the horse runs the race, and thus trainer and jockey stats and breeding play a very minor (if any) role. Trainer intent is always important, but often redundant to the picture painted by the figures of the horse itself. We don't merely seek the top rated horse - the 2nd or 3rd ranked horse is often 'good enough' and offered at longer odds to prevail when the favourite loses its normal 33% share of races. 2 horse betting is another prime tenet, though not etched in stone. Short-term, recent factor models are better than long-term, volume collections (i.e. for spot-plays that might for example hit 10 times in each 100 events). If there are any other caveats anyone else wants to add about learning curve or idiosyncracies (or stellar points!) - please state them without reserve from your own experience. I'd rather someone get the conservative point of view than merely the hype or party-line. The next 6 weeks do include the Holiday season, when some folks may be less available to help than otherwise, but we don't always get to choose our opportunities! PandaMan, ask away - anything at all. You can try the 1 week of race cards in the Demo Database without charge, but I suspect you will want to at least follow along with discussion of current races, so as to ask advice, challenge, make decisions with the toteboard in real-time (i.e. record wager decisions against RDSS' live tote odds at 2 or 1 mintues to post, not off the final Result Chart odds). $30/month for 20 cards or $2.00 per card is the ante for current races. The software is free to evaluate for your 6 weeks. Full Getting Started blurb is here: http://www.sartinmethodology.com/how_to_obtain_rdss best regards, Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 12-07-2009 at 03:59 PM.