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Delta Race 4 7f, 60K purse
I like the 1, 2 and 7 in this race, but not in that order.
I think the 1 might be improving but the last race at RP scares me a bit, being from RP. Its 87 SR may not repeat here. But I do notice its first out maiden at Saratoga generated an 84 SR with good turn time, so the 87 might be legit. Its 2nd and 3rd starts at 7f and 8f were in graded company at moderate paces but in both she faded. So some negatives on the two turn ability on this bull ring.
Horse 2 is problem horse for me and had to handle it special. She has not raced against this pace yet, but shows ability against faster paces and perhaps better horses - see 100K stake and the attempt to close against fast Grade 3 sprinters. Her top LPR in sprints is 89.5 in her best race ever (downgraded). She ran 86 and 87 in two routes running close to lead, one on dirt and one on turf, so I think the bull ring won't bother her. Today's pace does not look to tax her early, so I took the internal fractions from LaD 8.3 race and projected a 6.5f time of about 120 (i didn't cut back the fractions and used 6.6 sec all as a home made allowance for the bull ring). This makes her competitive with the 7 who has already won handily at this track at 6.5f in 120.7
..BTW the last screen shot is for the 2 showing consistent LPRs and the fact that if early is not so fast the 178 range ot CPR is reachable with the expected lower pace of this race.
Horse 7 -Won an optional claiming race at this track as a prep - was not entered to be claimed; support for the 84 SR comes from synth race at PID in 84 and 7f CD race 2nd out at 84 - all TT's are competitive.
I like the two and seven on top as primary, with 1 horse lurking. ML is 4-4.5 on all three, but ML favorite is 7/2 so its anybodys guess.
Good luck,
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