[BJennet]

Originally Posted by BJennet

Hi Richie,

Thanks very much for posting this. It might interest you that the average odds for the top three tiers here - 1. 5-1/ 2. 9-1 /3. 10-1 - are almost exactly those that I found for TE this year, which, as you know, is highly correlated with BL/BL. So obviously the wager value of the Sartin factors continues to be potent. One thing I'd add, that I mentioned in the TE post I made in your autopaceline thread - that I found a higher hit rate for #1 TE (and thus BL/BL) than I found in any of the late Follow Ups when I went through them, which, like the figures you've posted here, show a pretty much equal hit rate for the top three tiers. People should check out their own records, but if the software has improved in this way, as I think it has, recent races would be more accurate than those from a decade ago.

BTW, for anyone who's wondering whether the simplified Sartin strategy of the late Follow Ups still works, I hit five long shots over the weekend, 17-1, 16-1, 11-1, 10-1, and 11-1, and barely missed another 10-1 using it. Admittedly they don't always cluster like this, but value is definitely still out there for Sartin players.

Cheers,

B Jennet

Just wanted to correct figures that might have been misleading. The average odds I was citing was for all longshots only - i.e. above #1 - 3-1, #2 4-1, #3 5-1.