[BJennet]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Here will be a look at the winning races shown in Followup's #77-88. I think this is a great way to really see what was going on and should definitely help anyone wanting to take some time to absorb it.I just finished first issue and already little patterns emerge(lets see if it continues!)

I will show for each race where a BL/BL is shown the following:

1) Surface/Structure - for ex DS = dirt sprint and TR = turf route etc
2) The WINNING horses paceline used for ex last line or 2 back etc
3) The WINNING horse's BL/BL tier BEFORE hiding low odds favs for ex tier 1 or tier 3 etc
4) The WIN price payoff

**Unless otherwise noted the winning line used is the SAME dist/surface as today's race**

I started with issue #77 cause that is the beginning of the "Validator" program.

Hope this helps and here is Followup #77 races.
Followup # 77:
DS - last line - tier 3 = $124.80
DS - last line - tier 1 = $21.60
TR - line 5 - tier 1 = $20.80
DS - last line - tier 2 = $18.80
TR - last line (turf sprint projection) - tier 2(tie) = $10.20
TR - 2 back - tier 3 = $12.00
TR (11f marathon) - 3 back - tier 1 = $20.00
DS - 3 back (DR extraction) - tier 1 = $10.00
DR - last line - tier 3 = $25.00
TR - 2 back - tier 2 = $29.00
DS - 2 back - tier 5 = $12.20
DS - last line - tier 2 = $10.60
TS - line 4(DS used) - tier 1 = $32.20
DS - last line - tier 1 = $17.60



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHYVCVq9SH0

Hi Richie,

Thanks very much for posting this. It might interest you that the average odds for the top three tiers here - 1. 5-1/ 2. 9-1 /3. 10-1 - are almost exactly those that I found for TE this year, which, as you know, is highly correlated with BL/BL. So obviously the wager value of the Sartin factors continues to be potent. One thing I'd add, that I mentioned in the TE post I made in your autopaceline thread - that I found a higher hit rate for #1 TE (and thus BL/BL) than I found in any of the late Follow Ups when I went through them, which, like the figures you've posted here, show a pretty much equal hit rate for the top three tiers. People should check out their own records, but if the software has improved in this way, as I think it has, recent races would be more accurate than those from a decade ago.

BTW, for anyone who's wondering whether the simplified Sartin strategy of the late Follow Ups still works, I hit five long shots over the weekend, 17-1, 16-1, 11-1, 10-1, and 11-1, and barely missed another 10-1 using it. Admittedly they don't always cluster like this, but value is definitely still out there for Sartin players.

Cheers,

B Jennet