[For The Lead]

I have known for a long time, as have others I am sure, that a race is pretty much decided by the second call. That is to say, by the second call, the “players” have emerged. In most cases the winner is running 1st,2nd or 3rd at that point, with only the “official” final order yet to be determined.

I have done some quick research on 42,550 winners. These winners were NOT “cherry picked”. These are the winners of races from 4.5 furlongs up to 2 miles. These are the winners of races on all surfaces. Here are the results.

71% were running 1st,2nd or 3rd at the second call (no surprise, yet these winners could have been anywhere at the first call)
53% were running 1st or 2nd at the second call (and again, these winners could have been anywhere at the first call)
4% were running 1st at the second call after having been 3rd or worse at the first call. Hardly a big number.
Now……..
63% were running 1st,2nd or 3rd at the first call (not quite as good as the second call, but they didn’t get there from any other position, at any other call)
47% were running 1st or 2nd at the first call. This is almost HALF THE WINNERS! And unlike the second call, there was nowhere else these winners could have come from except where they were, 1st or 2nd.

Is there any value to the first call being the “early” call rather than the second call? Borrowing a tag line from Fox News, “we report, you decide”.