According to TrackMaster, the Equibase SR for 12f races (114 in this case) are never based on final time pars, as there are too few of those kinds of races for a given track/surface to make reliable average par times for (and thus to base their SR on). Looking at the Result Chart for that last line 5 August 8DMR, we see that there is indeed no PAR for the 12f distance at DMR poly. In this case, the Equibase SR is based on other measures/guesstimates which were once explained to me and which now escape me.
If you co-relate the ranks of the Equibase SR (ESR) with Total Energy ranks, every other line matches fairly closely, rank for rank, except the last one which is the one for which there is no Equibase par figure and for which they use other means different from all the other lines. I distrust that last line ESR somewhat, although it does represent a good effort by the horse, just not as good as previous efforts.
I ran Richard Kid's PPs with various alternate adjustments (no ITV/DTV, ITV, no DTV, DTV no ITV, 100% DTV combos with ITV). In all cases that last line ended up slowest of all its lines. I believe the slow final time (and slow TE) of the last line is simply due to the race being run in a slow final time - nothing to to do with the horse's form cycle. The distance equalization differential between 12f and 10f it about
6.0 seconds per half furlong (i.e. an extracted 10f race from a 12f race will be sped up
less per half furlong than at shorter distances using about
6.2 seconds per half furlong, because late segments of such marathons are being run a lot slower).
I think at these marathon distances, final time can be
all over the place, influenced by many factors other than pace, which should be a lot less important factor. That last race was just a slow race. That said, Richard ran as fast as he needed to to just about win it. "
A horse runs as fast as it needs to, not as fast as it can." It didn't
need to run faster to (almost) win that last race. How fast can it run? Check its 6th and 7th races, its top 2 Total Energies, and the peak of its last form cycle. Either line puts it as a top contender. The issue is: is there any evidence it is approaching its previous form again, will those older lines represent it or misrepresent it? Possibly its good close (albeit in a slow time) and good finish in the last race is a clue to its form, plus its
very fast last 4 workouts 101, 103, 95, 99 workout SRs, the last being a 5f blowout, 5 days ago). Good signs.
I don't have evidence from that last line that the means of adjusting the last 12f race to a 10f race today is faulty, but I might suggest looking beyond Total Energy and Final Time (possibly to the Equibase SR) of that race and consider what the horse is doing over all to find a means to represent it in today's matchup.
Comments on that analysis?
Ted