Mitchell Matrix
I have Mitchell's "Exacta Wagering" DVD and he first describes how to calculate
what is the Exacta Fair Pay as follows:
Exacta $2 Fair Pay=$2(win horse odds) x (Place horse odds + 1)
Example: Win horse odds - 4/1 and Place horse odds - 9/2 then:
EFP = $2x(4) x (4.5 +1) = 8(5.5) - $ 44.00
If the exacta is paying $40.00 then this is an underlay.
Actual he recommends not to bet unless there is a 25% to 40% percentage
above the fair pay amount.
As For the Matrix: say you have 4 contenders,
A=5/2, B=7/2, C=4 and D=6. You feel that A and B are the win candidates.
Then you set up a matrix with the win horses ( A & B) as columns and the
place horses A, B, C, D as rows. and you compute the Exacta fair value for
each of the combos. A/B, A/C, A/D, B/A, B/C, B/D and check the Exacta Fair
value against the Exacta prices at the time. This could be a lot of work as the
exacta prices keep changing. You enter the overlay exactas in the appropriate
matrix boxes and bet accordingly. To save computational time you could build
a Fair Pay chart with as many calculations as you wish.
This is the concept although I never tried it.
Ernie
|