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It has been well known for a long time that sloppy and some other off tracks produce margins between horses in excess of the average on fast tracks. The best figure handicappers have been trying to cope with that for a long time because it makes calculating the daily track variant more difficult. You either have to give the winners very big figures or the losers very sub par figures (or somewhere in between).
I have a technique I have been using for about 25 years that is helpful, but it is far from perfect. It falls into the category of "I'd rather be approximately right than precisely wrong".
I would "guess" you would be better off discounting some of the wipe out wins on sloppy tracks. You'll certainly lose some of the subsequent winners that way (maybe even some big prices), but that is true of every exclusion process that is trying to increase the quality and value of the selections.
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