Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Tim Y · 07-15-2009, 04:03 PM

Just finished TWO very good books
http://www.amazon.com/Drunkards-Walk.../dp/0375424040
The Drunkards Walk How Randomness Rules Our Lives

and Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Nasim Taleb and these have profound implications on the predictive nature of a wager in that there will ALWAYS BE a bit of unpredictability in any attempt at judging the future and we must confront that truism or be exiled to constant frustration.

Realize how a slight bump at the gate, a rough trip, jockey dropping the stikck etc, can change the outcome by things one has NO ability to predict, or a horse suddenly "woke up" or was jolted (phenomenologically).

In exotics this mean the oft use of the "all" or near "all" at a point in the wager. I often get the SPLITZACTA (first and third with many a long long price in between) and since accepting the randomness these previously frustrating situations have graduated to profits.

Biggest shots are in the baby races where you ride the coat tails of a single good horse to the completely random field of many first timers and the payouts, particularly when that horse runs third, are big time

07-15-2009, 04:03 PM	#1
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	Accepting randomness in wager creation Just finished TWO very good books http://www.amazon.com/Drunkards-Walk.../dp/0375424040 The Drunkards Walk How Randomness Rules Our Lives and Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Nasim Taleb and these have profound implications on the predictive nature of a wager in that there will ALWAYS BE a bit of unpredictability in any attempt at judging the future and we must confront that truism or be exiled to constant frustration. Realize how a slight bump at the gate, a rough trip, jockey dropping the stikck etc, can change the outcome by things one has NO ability to predict, or a horse suddenly "woke up" or was jolted (phenomenologically). In exotics this mean the oft use of the "all" or near "all" at a point in the wager. I often get the SPLITZACTA (first and third with many a long long price in between) and since accepting the randomness these previously frustrating situations have graduated to profits. Biggest shots are in the baby races where you ride the coat tails of a single good horse to the completely random field of many first timers and the payouts, particularly when that horse runs third, are big time __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." Last edited by Tim Y; 07-15-2009 at 04:18 PM.