|
Okay, its late but I haven't looked at charts.
1-E, 23-46.2 fought at 23, up by .5 in 46.2
2-P, slow
3-E in his best races; 23-46 from line 9, fought both calls
4-slow
5-slow
7-slow
8-IN
9-E 22.4-45.4 and 21.4 - 45 and 21.4-44.4 last three. never ran close to mdn win so I am not considering that race. Appears to be FPLR from last but is tandem with 10 in last and with 11 in 2nd last. Needed 1 length lead in last and faded.
10-P tandem with 9 from line 2, but pace was slower than todays; fot for lead in 44.4 to lead by hd
11-E, maybe and could be if fresh; two races on lead were 22.3-44.4 and 23.1-46.1 and he faded in both; This one could be presser, as he has pressed some good paces, but always fades; 1/6 life and 0 for last 10. + note - today's pace should be soft relative to last three.
12-Presses slow paces and fades. Out.
Projected pace: The 1 and 3 fought to get to 23, so I think that pushes them to 22.4; the 9 needed to be clear by 1 length at 22.4, so I think this race starts out at 22.3. If 11 runs early he needs a clear lead at 22.3, so first fraction for me is 22.3 or maybe a little better.
2nd call time could go as low as 44.4 if the 11 goes E but only the 9, 10 and 11 have gone that fast; the 9 backed up the 11 needed to be clear by a half and the 10 fought for the lead at 44.4, so my estimate is 45.1 or so, which kills off the 1, 3, 9 and 11. Final time should be in the low 110's.
The 8 has run 4 good races in a row and even tho his best race was his maiden win,all the other horses that ran against 44.4 or 45 were in maiden events as well.
I would take 8 to win and 11 to win place just in case he decides to press. Both horses when pressing run from 3rd to 5th place which is good for the early matchup in this race.
Now I'll peak at the results!
|