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I’ve just read this thread. Let me run through this and make sure I’ve got this right.
This is kind of like a spot play, only it is used to project the pace. It is not a spot play for picking winners.
The following four things must be in place (I’ve put them in a different order to make them easier for me to understand):
1. Use only the last race for projecting pace
2. That race must have run within 30 days of today
3. The horse must have been in the lead at the first and second calls
4. Unless the horse is young with few pacelines, he must have run in the lead at the same pace in a prior race. In other words, make sure that a fast time in the last race is not a fluke.
If you have found a race that fits all four guidelines, you can use that paceline as your projected pace. Use that paceline/projected pace to match the race as you normally would.
If I’ve got it wrong, please correct me.
This is not something that can be done in every race. I play the NYRA tracks most of the time, and I can tell you that this situation doesn’t come up very often. But I’ll be on the lookout for it from now on. It makes sense, and it is actually a pretty conservative spot play.
I agree that it departs from the 5-step-approach. But if you read through the Hat Check forum, you will see that Jim Bradshaw departed from the 5-step-approach many times when he got into the more advanced Match-Up concepts. And he encouraged us to find spot plays of our own. What Richie is demonstrating here is not a radical departure from the basics. It is simply a short-cut. The situation in which it can be used comes up infrequently, but Richie found that it works well, and is presenting it to us for our benefit. I'm thankful for any technique that reduces the workload.
Regards,
Marc
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