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I agree that speed is pretty weak here. If 11 sets the pace off its last, the EPR = 90, LPR = 78.5. Looking at the 9 in its early runs anywhere near 90 shows that the high seventies are about as good as it can do. 9 was 3rd tandem horse, so I tossed as well.
this race looks to set up for pressers IMHO and recall Richie's post about off pace horses here at Arlington which helps this analysis.
I was tempted to consider the 8 -La Mandy of its second line, but this horse is very strange looking. Again look at the E/L readout. No matter what the early pace this horse can't exceed the mid 81's except for one slop race. So max speed for this one is 81.5, the horse normally runs 2-5 lengths off the lead and there are better closers in the field.
The 5 and 7 out of the tandem and the 6 - Niki's. The 8 furlong first after layoff has a total energy the same as sprints from lines 3 and 7 and = to the TE of the 5 and 7. The mile E/L pretty much matches the best sprint. Might not win but should contend pretty well.
The tandem might repeat but historically the five has run closer to the lead than it did in the tandem while the seven appears to have a better late kick.
I can't separate these three, so I'm boxing 5-6-7
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