Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

gl45 · 05-10-2009, 08:24 AM

FTL,
Imo, current form and pace-class abilities are two different attributes. In same cases the pace-class abilities can be measured in the last 2 or 3 races, if the horse doesn't show anything deeper in his chart, but in most case the horse has a line deep in his chart that will show his true pace class abilities. I capped the same race that Bill V. posted. MNR race #5

Horse #1 is a P/S
Line 1 is the line that show current form, faster time, great move positionally and lengths wise to the stretch.
Line 2 and 3 show different running style in a very slow races. I think the horse won race 2 by default.
What pace line (Pace-Class abilities) in my handicapping would complement his current form?
I chose line 10, shaved 6 second from the final time.

Race final times: 24.3 48.3 1.14.1 1.41.3 (today's race)
Horse last race: 48.0 1.14.0 1.41.3 ( current form)
Horse 10th. race: 48.2 1.13.3 1.40.3 (Pace-Class)

Horse positions: 5 3 1 1 (today's race)
Last race: 6 5 3 3
Line 10: 6 4 2 2

I don't believe in data manipulation, I like to stay with the basic raw POR.
No other horse can run the above lines, #6 maybe, we cam make a case for the sprinters #3 and #4.

05-10-2009, 08:24 AM	#53
gl45 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 878	FTL, Imo, current form and pace-class abilities are two different attributes. In same cases the pace-class abilities can be measured in the last 2 or 3 races, if the horse doesn't show anything deeper in his chart, but in most case the horse has a line deep in his chart that will show his true pace class abilities. I capped the same race that Bill V. posted. MNR race #5 Horse #1 is a P/S Line 1 is the line that show current form, faster time, great move positionally and lengths wise to the stretch. Line 2 and 3 show different running style in a very slow races. I think the horse won race 2 by default. What pace line (Pace-Class abilities) in my handicapping would complement his current form? I chose line 10, shaved 6 second from the final time. Race final times: 24.3 48.3 1.14.1 1.41.3 (today's race) Horse last race: 48.0 1.14.0 1.41.3 ( current form) Horse 10th. race: 48.2 1.13.3 1.40.3 (Pace-Class) Horse positions: 5 3 1 1 (today's race) Last race: 6 5 3 3 Line 10: 6 4 2 2 I don't believe in data manipulation, I like to stay with the basic raw POR. No other horse can run the above lines, #6 maybe, we cam make a case for the sprinters #3 and #4.