Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

For The Lead · 05-04-2009, 10:09 PM

Bill,
Thanks for starting the thread on the captioned. As you stated, pace line selection IS "the heart and soul" of the methodology, however, in my opinion, the MOST ABUSED. As you can see, there have been no responses to this post and I wonder "why" since having read many of the posts on this site regarding line selection, people are all over the place. Quite naturally, you and Ted present the most logical approach. Now Richie, I want to tell you something. You have put up some posts that I think are just outstanding and I mean that sincerely, but in this case I'd like to speak directly to Bill and Ted.
You set forth the "guidelines" for pace line selection, but I think there is more to it than those guidelines and I don't think the topic gets its' just attention.
It is my intention to start an ongoing dialogue with you covering one point at a time, rather than bombard you with many scenarios all at once.

My first point has to do with “old” lines. These old lines do not necessarily mean they are at the bottom of the horses PP’s. Before I go any further, for many years I have been downloading every track, every day from the same service you use for RDSS. The exceptions would be tracks like, Prescott Downs, Blue Bonnet, Will Rodgers and others such as those. I keep all of that information, plus the information I create from that downloaded information in data base files. What I can tell you is this. I just decided to look at this past year.
Of all the horses whose last race was more than 90 days ago, only 4% won. Of all the horses whose last race was more than 60 days ago, only 8% won. (that includes the group previously mentioned)
Of all the horses whose last race was more than 45 days ago, only 13% won. (again, this includes the two groups previously mentioned)
So, if you are looking for horses to enter and the horse you are currently looking at doesn’t have a race in the past 45 days, is it wise to enter them off of any line, whether it is the last line, second line back or third line back, or even further back as I have seen in some cases?

05-04-2009, 10:09 PM	#2
For The Lead Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 1,292	Pace Lines Bill, Thanks for starting the thread on the captioned. As you stated, pace line selection IS "the heart and soul" of the methodology, however, in my opinion, the MOST ABUSED. As you can see, there have been no responses to this post and I wonder "why" since having read many of the posts on this site regarding line selection, people are all over the place. Quite naturally, you and Ted present the most logical approach. Now Richie, I want to tell you something. You have put up some posts that I think are just outstanding and I mean that sincerely, but in this case I'd like to speak directly to Bill and Ted. You set forth the "guidelines" for pace line selection, but I think there is more to it than those guidelines and I don't think the topic gets its' just attention. It is my intention to start an ongoing dialogue with you covering one point at a time, rather than bombard you with many scenarios all at once. My first point has to do with “old” lines. These old lines do not necessarily mean they are at the bottom of the horses PP’s. Before I go any further, for many years I have been downloading every track, every day from the same service you use for RDSS. The exceptions would be tracks like, Prescott Downs, Blue Bonnet, Will Rodgers and others such as those. I keep all of that information, plus the information I create from that downloaded information in data base files. What I can tell you is this. I just decided to look at this past year. Of all the horses whose last race was more than 90 days ago, only 4% won. Of all the horses whose last race was more than 60 days ago, only 8% won. (that includes the group previously mentioned) Of all the horses whose last race was more than 45 days ago, only 13% won. (again, this includes the two groups previously mentioned) So, if you are looking for horses to enter and the horse you are currently looking at doesn’t have a race in the past 45 days, is it wise to enter them off of any line, whether it is the last line, second line back or third line back, or even further back as I have seen in some cases?