Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Ted Craven · 04-20-2009, 04:21 PM

Jim,

First, I personally hardly ever bet for win horses ranked worse than 3rd (and ties) on the BL/BL screen. I think that's a low percentage game. As to betting 4th+ BL/BLs after hiding a favourite, see the body of this post below. The only exceptions, I think, would be those 4th+BL/Bls with a #1 V/DC rank (indicating excellent deceleration relative to velocity, and relative to the rest of the field) AND who had good supporting ranks in factors which I think are important to today's type of race (e.g. good late and hidden energy figs in a Turf route). In this case, if the odds are generous enough, I have a side bank from which I bet modest sums (e.g. $2 WPS).

Let's look at race #6 from Saturday April 18 at Tampa Bay. I had a (too rare) half day to work and bet some races and I guess I picked a good day and track, as I managed to win several wagers in the first half of the card.

The #1 Maxime won paying $31.20 and the favourite #5 Mac Speed placed at 9/5 ($124.00 Exacta).

Here was the BL/BL before hiding the favourite #5 which was too low to bet for win:

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Already I am encouraged that the M/L and post time favourite #5 is not top ranked in BL/BL AND that it does not possess stellar (relative to the rest) Late and Hidden rankings (which, though I don't model Tampa - or much of anywhere really - I assume is generically important in Turf routes). The combination of that plus the low odds means: hide this horse for win! So we do, with this resulting BL/BL (i.e. after hides):

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Some of the other screens with useful tie-breaking or confidence building info:

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The result is a textbook Wagercapping 101 example.

1. Find the 1st horse for your 2-horse win wager from your top 2 BL/BL, after hides. The Top 2 here (#10 and #3) are tied both in BL/BL and VDC so we check the components. You'd think Late and Hidden energy (blend of 2nd and 3rd fractional energy) would be important in a Turf route and #3 has better than #10 in that department on all of the Velocity, Segments and Energy screens. So #3 is the prime win wager in our synthetic entry win wager.

2. The 2nd member of the win wager comes from consulting the Top 3 BL/BL (again, after hides) and selecting the longest odds horse remaining: voilà the #1 at 15-1, no subtlety required - only hold your nose at its apparent (lack of) form (it did have a workout 7 days ago...). The Late and Hidden energy credentials for the #1 are even better than the #3.

So there are 2 horses for a win wager: #3 and #1. I placed equal units on each to win, and per the opening paragraph above and because the #1 surely was a suspicious looker, I dipped into my side bankroll for a jaunty extra $2 to Place and Show.

I am also working with a small Exacta bankroll as well, from which I mainly make $1 3-horse exacta boxes right now. Here, we add the hidden 9/5 favourite #5 back in to the exacta box 1-3-5 for a lucky $124.20 for $2. In this case, the winner #1 could just as easily have not made it in time, and come 2nd, for a smaller exacta and only the Place and Show payouts. Perhaps someone could have (or did

) produced the trifecta ($668.40) and superfecta ($1286.40) given the above readouts.

This, then, is how 4th+ ranked BL/BL members figure in our wager construction: through hides they become 3rd (or better), or tied with 3rd with superior corollaries (or component factors) after we hide those horses from the mix who will not pay us well if they win. The favourite of course will win 1/3 of the time or better (probably better, the lower the odds). I like to look at that as 'the glass is 2/3 full' (i.e. full of favourites who will fail to win), so if my 2-horse wagers on races with such hidden (and, if lucky, perhaps vulnerable) favourites, as here, have net minimum odds to suit my hit rate, I am happy. Sometimes a horse who appears as murky as #1 Maxime today is indeed a dud. Therein lies finesse and seeking the small clues - or luck. But 15-1 is good insurance against bad luck, or too-clever-by-half analysis.

Hope that answers your original question about 4th+ BL/BLs, and also how the other screens can serve as confirmative analysis.

I won races 1,3,4,5,6 betting 2 horses (better hit rate than normal...) Remind me why I don't bet Pick 3s...

Cheers,

Ted

04-20-2009, 04:21 PM	#9
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,251	Jim, First, I personally hardly ever bet for win horses ranked worse than 3rd (and ties) on the BL/BL screen. I think that's a low percentage game. As to betting 4th+ BL/BLs after hiding a favourite, see the body of this post below. The only exceptions, I think, would be those 4th+BL/Bls with a #1 V/DC rank (indicating excellent deceleration relative to velocity, and relative to the rest of the field) AND who had good supporting ranks in factors which I think are important to today's type of race (e.g. good late and hidden energy figs in a Turf route). In this case, if the odds are generous enough, I have a side bank from which I bet modest sums (e.g. $2 WPS). Let's look at race #6 from Saturday April 18 at Tampa Bay. I had a (too rare) half day to work and bet some races and I guess I picked a good day and track, as I managed to win several wagers in the first half of the card. The #1 Maxime won paying $31.20 and the favourite #5 Mac Speed placed at 9/5 ($124.00 Exacta). Here was the BL/BL before hiding the favourite #5 which was too low to bet for win: Already I am encouraged that the M/L and post time favourite #5 is not top ranked in BL/BL AND that it does not possess stellar (relative to the rest) Late and Hidden rankings (which, though I don't model Tampa - or much of anywhere really - I assume is generically important in Turf routes). The combination of that plus the low odds means: hide this horse for win! So we do, with this resulting BL/BL (i.e. after hides): Some of the other screens with useful tie-breaking or confidence building info: The result is a textbook Wagercapping 101 example. 1. Find the 1st horse for your 2-horse win wager from your top 2 BL/BL, after hides. The Top 2 here (#10 and #3) are tied both in BL/BL and VDC so we check the components. You'd think Late and Hidden energy (blend of 2nd and 3rd fractional energy) would be important in a Turf route and #3 has better than #10 in that department on all of the Velocity, Segments and Energy screens. So #3 is the prime win wager in our synthetic entry win wager. 2. The 2nd member of the win wager comes from consulting the Top 3 BL/BL (again, after hides) and selecting the longest odds horse remaining: voilà the #1 at 15-1, no subtlety required - only hold your nose at its apparent (lack of) form (it did have a workout 7 days ago...). The Late and Hidden energy credentials for the #1 are even better than the #3. So there are 2 horses for a win wager: #3 and #1. I placed equal units on each to win, and per the opening paragraph above and because the #1 surely was a suspicious looker, I dipped into my side bankroll for a jaunty extra $2 to Place and Show. I am also working with a small Exacta bankroll as well, from which I mainly make $1 3-horse exacta boxes right now. Here, we add the hidden 9/5 favourite #5 back in to the exacta box 1-3-5 for a lucky $124.20 for $2. In this case, the winner #1 could just as easily have not made it in time, and come 2nd, for a smaller exacta and only the Place and Show payouts. Perhaps someone could have (or did ) produced the trifecta ($668.40) and superfecta ($1286.40) given the above readouts. This, then, is how 4th+ ranked BL/BL members figure in our wager construction: through hides they become 3rd (or better), or tied with 3rd with superior corollaries (or component factors) after we hide those horses from the mix who will not pay us well if they win. The favourite of course will win 1/3 of the time or better (probably better, the lower the odds). I like to look at that as 'the glass is 2/3 full' (i.e. full of favourites who will fail to win), so if my 2-horse wagers on races with such hidden (and, if lucky, perhaps vulnerable) favourites, as here, have net minimum odds to suit my hit rate, I am happy. Sometimes a horse who appears as murky as #1 Maxime today is indeed a dud. Therein lies finesse and seeking the small clues - or luck. But 15-1 is good insurance against bad luck, or too-clever-by-half analysis. Hope that answers your original question about 4th+ BL/BLs, and also how the other screens can serve as confirmative analysis. I won races 1,3,4,5,6 betting 2 horses (better hit rate than normal...) Remind me why I don't bet Pick 3s... Cheers, Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 04-20-2009 at 10:18 PM.