Quote:
Originally Posted by tom
Cincy...the HSH pars are very good. In spite of the attack on pars here, TM uses pars to get their variants and track to track adjustments, so denying them while using them is kind of nuts. So you using them if not using a program that adjusts is very valid. I used them for a long time with good results.
I guess you are using velocity ratings, ala Pace Makes the Race?
Modifying pace lines before you do velocity ratings works very well if you keep profiles and models ( another Doc tool!).
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Tom I like that you are picking my brain back.
What I'm contemplating is using the DRF variant and the 10,000 par to gauge ability,nothing more.But without it one is handicapped.
I tell you between the Beyer numbers,DRF variants,Quirin Numbers,and numerous other numbers out there.Trying to quantify things into a believable truth is a task that is more likely to make your head explode before resolve sets in.But there has to be an answer and if it's not out there I want to be a part of finding it.It exists.I have had success with the races.I just want to isolate the winning mentality with every factor.I am totally intrigued by what the energy distribution numbers bear out with the synthetic tracks.I've been wondering why California horseplayers have been so quiet since that advent.
The good thing is I read tracks well and I can walk into a site,pick up a form and "Lock in" after a few races.But I would really like to have a better grip on the races reality.I'm reading Jim Quinn's Handicapper's Stakes Festival and he has great points in keeping up with the stakes population.What I want to know is how to go from A to B.How to quantify performances with the Quirin figs.I have barely a clue.I thought I'd put it out there because that gap seems tremendous.What is the state of the methodology???