Quote:
Originally Posted by For The Lead
Given: For all the factors that go into the outcome of a horse race, every race is unique unto itself. There has never been a race like today’s race in the past and there will never be a race like today’s race in the future.
Questions: What were the “match-ups” in the race you selected your pace line from in comparison to today’s “match-ups”?
You know what the pace was, but what were the factors that went into the making of that pace?
Are those same factors present in today’s race?
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Each line selected did not evolve in a vacuum but was effected by the match up of that day's interaction of the pace participants. The outcome was the sum result of those pressures. It is only when a horse goes wire to wire, alone on the lead, that the rest of the field is not relevant.
The specifics of a match up trump the averages of a database. Always have, always will.