Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - EVD 10th -- Wednesday, Jan. 25

alydar_ David · 01-25-2006, 11:18 AM

EVD 10th -- Wednesday, Jan. 25
6F CLM $4,000 4YO+

Here's another chaos race. In a fourteen horse field not one horse can run to early par.

#2 Dr Ante will probably be the leader by the second call. He's got the best Total Energy and is the class of the field. At 3-1 he's the obvious horse to beat. Let's see if we can find some value elsewhere.

#11 Fourty Four Red likes the distance and can run to final par time. He's got the second best Total Energy and appears to be in form. Here's what makes me sit up and pay attention. His morning line odds are 8-1. I'd prefer something in the neighborhood of 12-1 for this horse. You might get those odds. There is some crazy betting at EVD.

# 4 Exfirmed is pretty quick and will be coming from out of the clouds. He hasn't raced in 120 days, but his workouts are okay. His morning line is 10-1. That's too high for a horse this fast.

If the #6, #7 and #2 kill themselves on the front end, and #11 doesn't keep going after he passes those guys, then #4 could pick up the pieces at a price.

The exotics are too complicated to mention as they are largely a function of price. Put it this way, there are lots of contenders for all the spots except win. In my opinion one of the above will wind up in the winner's circle.

I'll probably make win bets on #4 and #11.

Please feel free to jump in. The water's fine. :>)

01-25-2006, 11:18 AM	#1
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	EVD 10th -- Wednesday, Jan. 25 EVD 10th -- Wednesday, Jan. 25 6F CLM $4,000 4YO+ Here's another chaos race. In a fourteen horse field not one horse can run to early par. #2 Dr Ante will probably be the leader by the second call. He's got the best Total Energy and is the class of the field. At 3-1 he's the obvious horse to beat. Let's see if we can find some value elsewhere. #11 Fourty Four Red likes the distance and can run to final par time. He's got the second best Total Energy and appears to be in form. Here's what makes me sit up and pay attention. His morning line odds are 8-1. I'd prefer something in the neighborhood of 12-1 for this horse. You might get those odds. There is some crazy betting at EVD. # 4 Exfirmed is pretty quick and will be coming from out of the clouds. He hasn't raced in 120 days, but his workouts are okay. His morning line is 10-1. That's too high for a horse this fast. If the #6, #7 and #2 kill themselves on the front end, and #11 doesn't keep going after he passes those guys, then #4 could pick up the pieces at a price. The exotics are too complicated to mention as they are largely a function of price. Put it this way, there are lots of contenders for all the spots except win. In my opinion one of the above will wind up in the winner's circle. I'll probably make win bets on #4 and #11. Please feel free to jump in. The water's fine. :>)