Quote:
Originally Posted by BladeRunner
After reading your posts about energy I would like to know if you make energy profile of the tracks you play. I am trying to learn about energy demand of the track and how to make them. Which FU should I read ?
Raman
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I never found a FU that addressed the way I profile. At EACH track, at EACH DIRT distance (doesn't work well for turf), I record the e/l of the winner from the line(s) I used to enter them. NO differentiation for sex, surface changes (muddy etc which tend to be more positive anyway) or age as it has not shown to be statistically significant other than two year olds which are MUCH more positive at each distance.
i.e. Tampa Bay's e/l average for 6 furlongs is about +10 whereas Hawthorne is lower at +6.0, whereas inner AQU or Fort Erie is can go up to +18 and still be a winner. OFTEN the e/l profile trumps the total energy especially in the cold wet courses of Northern Winters. Also,
lone early horses can get away with much higher numbers and still win.
Compare that to Woodbines 8.5f profile which centers around -1.0 and others it is a bit more negative at -3.0. As the distances lengthen, the e/l averages become more negative but they are SPECIFIC to the course. I am convinced that this will help a lot with those 'horses for courses" we all know and why many a West Coast horse poops out on the differing energy requirements of East Coast tracks, AND the reason that "The graveyard of favorites" (Saratoga) gets its name as it is usually the polar opposite of the many horses winning on a differing profile coming from Belmont.
These are just AVERAGES as I keep an ongoing record, race to race, throughout the card as it can change radically (didn't pick it up last Friday at Woodbine until I had contributed quite a bit of $$$$) and biases are REAL: The day of the Wood Memorial a few years back, it was so biased early that just about EVERY horse that won that day crashed and burned next out.
Bellamy Road and Bob N John's wins had a lot to do with that bias and it showed the way they petered out in the later Triple Crown contests after being recipients of that early boost.
Remember too that in my study of e/l relativity, WITHIN REASON, the more positive the e/l, the greater chance of winning: given the choice between an Oaklawn route horse at -12 and one at -3, the latter would be much the better choice NO MATTER the total energy.
As Bill quoted and it is only too true: IT is not how fast a horse runs, but the horse runs fast.