[Bill Lyster]

In my maiden research this pattern turns up periodically, but on highly sporadic basis = translated I guess that means less than 5%. The payoff odds are almost always GENEROUS. The giveaway to me comes either in the comment lines or just really strong final fraction numbers.

These horses usually are inattentive at the gate, stumbled out of the gate or got bumped early in the race and fell far back, BUT DID NOT GIVE UP. I suppose its also possible that a bit of form clouding by the trainer is going on as well (but I could never find one trainer who showed up more than once with this angle). Usually, they were double digits behind at the top of the stretch, but often had final fraction TPR values 8 to 10 points higher than anyone else in the race. Rarely do they have the highest CPR, but they usually are in the top five or six CPR. Horses with this pattern usually need to be within 12 CPR points of the highest horse in the race, otherwise its indicative of just a slow horse.

In many ways the superlative final fraction ratings are an exact opposite to the horse that shows exceptional speed in its last race just prior to a maiden win, but both horses have in common the fact that one part of the race is an absolute standout (= a horse that made a determined effort).

Bill