Quote:
Originally Posted by grahors
IN GENERAL, how far back time wise and number of lines, will you go back to find a nifty pace line to work with.
I know there are situations like the horse has been running way out of it's class or on the wrong surface, but IN GENERAL, how far will you go??
I try to limit it to 90days and 3 pace lines.
Cecil
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There is no ONE answer: the past performances tell a tale DISTINCT to each horse. With the blade runners (turf) the Pizzolla window tells you to look at ALL of them and pick the BEST turf line.
To find out the best running style of a horse one has to look at all of them and then to see where today's form cycles is compared to their best line in the past ten: was that best line an exception? boosted by a track variant? or, has this animal produced similar lines in the past close to the ones recently? Are there several lines telling you this one is going south along with the horse dropping big time in class off few workouts? or is improvement noted in the past several (the E/EP is the clue here).
NO SINGLE APPROACH can be touted as each animal's history is distinct to them. Young horses get good quickly: War Emblem, this year's Belmont winner...others regain lost form, others project form indicating a surface change would benefit them...... the combinations are many. Decreasing total energy and increasing % median versus similar paces is a hallmark of a horse going off form.
There are so many reasons to look at the entire story: Think how one evaluates, say, a baseball player: stats over the career compared to stats this season, injuries, playing different positions etc. JUST like evaluating a horse's chances RELATIVE to today's match up.