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I don't have a 10,000 race data base but from looking at a LOT of races concerning positioning when predicting who will be where in the pack of todays race I will look at how many times they have this position in their last 10 races. Horses who have had the lead 6 times will with little exception in todays race will lead a horse who has only had the lead 3 times. The same goes for mid and back of the pack. A horse who has been in last position in 6 out of his last 10 races will be last in todays race if the other horses have each been last less than 6 times.
Note. Comparing sprint vrs dirt. You have to move up far back sprinters when comparing route pacelines. example sprint 6th position may move up to a route 2 or 3 position.
Mike.
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